A Quantitative Analysis of Genocide in Kibuye

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AQuantitativeAnalysisofGenocideinKibuyePrefecture,RwandaPhilipVerwimp*Ph.DCandidateFundforScientificResearchEconomicsDepartmentCatholicUniversityofLeuven,BelgiumPhilip.verwimp@econ.kuleuven.ac.beAbstractofthepaperThispaperisaquantitativestudyofthegenocideintheprefectureofKibuyeinRwandain1994.Weuseanoriginaldatabasedevelopedbytheorganisationofthesurvivorsofthegenocide(IBUKA)whocollectedthedatabyhouse-to-housefieldwork.Thedatacontaininformationontheage,sex,communeofresidencebeforethegenocide,theprofessionaloccupationofthevictims,theplaceanddateofdeathandtheweaponusedtokill,foratotalof59.050victimsofgenocide.Foronecommune(Mabanza),were-codedthedata,presentdetailedstatisticsandperformananalysisofsurvivalchances.Fromtheanalysis,wederivethatTutsifromthesectorsofMabanzacommunewhoseTutsipopulationdidnot(oronlyinlimitednumbers)gototheGatwaroStadiumhadabetterchancetosurvivethegenocideinKibuye.Forthewholeoftheprefecture,wepresentanestimationofthedailykillingrate,estimationsofthenumberofTutsikilledinthemajormassacresandtheweaponsused.Forover25.000victimsforwhichthedatafilehascompleteinformation,wepresentalogisticalregressionexplainingtheuseofeitheratraditionalweaponorafire-arm.Theanalysisshowsthattheprobabilitytobekilledwithafire-armdependedonthecommuneofresidenceofthevictim,theageofthevictim,thenumberofdaysafterApril6thevictimwaskilledandoninteractioneffectsbetweenthelattertwovariablesandthesexofthevictim.*TheauthorisaresearchscholarfromtheFundofScientificResearch(Flanders,Belgium).TheauthorowesmanythankstotheFundforthegrantsthatenabledtworesearchstaysinRwandain1999andin2000.TheauthorexpresseshisgratitudetoIBUKAandinparticulartoF.R.Ruvukanduvugaforthepermissiontousetheirdatafile.Itisworthemphasizingthattheauthorcanusethefilewithoutrestrictions.Academicfreedomintheuseofthedatafilefortheanalysisofthegenocidewereunconditional.IamindebtedtoL.Berlage,S.Cook,S.Dercon,A.Desforges,W.Seltzer,andseminarparticipantsintheGenocideStudiesSeminaratYaleUniversityforinsightfulandcriticalcommentstoadraftversionofthispaper.IamgratefultoF.fortheskillfuleditingofthepaper.Allresponsibilityforthepaperremainswiththeauthor.
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